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Old 02-14-2016, 06:59 PM
Anna7 Anna7 is offline
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Default General question: how likely for violent offender to parole the first time

Generally speaking, how likely is it that a violent offender (1st degree murder) serving life with possibility of parole would make parole the first time he/she came up for it? (Murder was horrific, dreadful.) Any thoughts welcome.
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Old 02-14-2016, 07:05 PM
CenTexLyn CenTexLyn is offline
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far too many variables to offer even a half-assed guess. To get even to that point, one needs to know the jurisdiction in question, the length of sentence, institutional adjustment, prior criminal history, acceptance of responsibility, likelihood of protest from victim's family and/or trial officials, whether the sentence was result of a plea or a jury verdict and probably another half dozen variables that I could name if I kept going.

On more than one occasion and with success, I have presented a fundamental argument that a capital case tried to a jury as a death penalty case actually already has resulted in half of the Board's decision being made precisely because the jury found the individual was not a continuing threat to society.

Another critical variable is just how much time has been served. By example, we used to have people in this State who were eligible for parole on a murder sentence inside of seven years. Others have had to do substantially more time, depending on when the offense was committed. As one can reasonably imagine, the time served on a sentence has a substantial impact on prospects for a favorable outcome.
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Old 02-14-2016, 08:20 PM
Anna7 Anna7 is offline
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Thank you .. I've been doing some online reading about parole boards in general, and how they make their decisions; I didn't realize that 2 states have basically abolished parole, and that in the '90's a trend of imposing stiffer sentences took place. I also read that many parole boards generally operate "behind closed doors" and don't have to justify their decisions to anyone, leaving many inmates in the dark as to why their bid for parole may have been declined. One article said, in some cases, if the board doesn't like the crime, the inmate won't parole. And, I read that some parole boards can take about 3 minutes to decide a case, due to overwhelming caseloads, and some board members will vote the way a fellow board member voted because they trust them, and some will vote the opposite way because they don't trust a fellow board member. I realize this is all in very general terms, and drawn from various articles on the 'net ...
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Old 02-14-2016, 09:04 PM
CenTexLyn CenTexLyn is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anna7 View Post
Thank you .. I've been doing some online reading about parole boards in general, and how they make their decisions; I didn't realize that 2 states have basically abolished parole, and that in the '90's a trend of imposing stiffer sentences took place. I also read that many parole boards generally operate "behind closed doors" and don't have to justify their decisions to anyone, leaving many inmates in the dark as to why their bid for parole may have been declined. One article said, in some cases, if the board doesn't like the crime, the inmate won't parole. And, I read that some parole boards can take about 3 minutes to decide a case, due to overwhelming caseloads, and some board members will vote the way a fellow board member voted because they trust them, and some will vote the opposite way because they don't trust a fellow board member. I realize this is all in very general terms, and drawn from various articles on the 'net ...
It does no good to go into theoretical discussions. I answered with the presumption that you were actually seeking an answer to a specific case. My answer is not based on articles but rather what I actually have dealt with across the past thirty years in this field, including some time as a decision-maker.
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Old 02-14-2016, 09:10 PM
Anna7 Anna7 is offline
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I understand .. I guess I'm trying to get an idea of the big picture, what's happening nationwide, trending ..
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