I'm not sure about other states but on the DOC site in Michigan it says "earliest release date" (ERD) or "projected release date" (PRD) - that's when he will be first eligible for parole. It's not a promise he will be released, it's only the timeframe of eligibility, when he will face the parole board.
Many get a flop the first time around, especially if his crime was classified as a violent one. My husband got a one year flop his first time (I think one year is the standard in MI) but in other states the flops may be from 2 - 5 years. Because of the economy though, I think there's a bigger chance of them being released on their first try if their crime was a non-violent one.
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