NJR102000
10-30-2004, 03:24 PM
Poll: 'Three-strikes' overhaul losing steam
By Andy Furillo -- Bee Staff Writer
Published 2:15 am PDT Saturday, October 30, 2004
Boosted by a popular governor and backed by a new influx of cash, opponents of an effort to amend the state's "three-strikes" law are heading into the final weekend before the election with a huge shot of momentum.
A Field Poll of likely voters released Friday showed support for Proposition 66 has slipped by 25 points in the past 17 days - with the most-recently contacted respondents evenly split on the measure.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, said he has never seen such an about-face on an initiative during the course of a single polling period. It started, he said, when Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger stumped the state against Proposition 66 last weekend.
"The word has gotten out to the voting public that the governor is opposed to this thing, and he seems to be making some headway in persuading people to the 'no' side, to give it a second look," DiCamillo said.
DiCamillo said the movement began even before the No on 66 forces launched their television advertising campaign - featuring Schwarzenegger - on Wednesday. The opponents, with a bankroll now approaching $3 million, are blanketing every media market in the state with 15-second spots in which the Republican governor implores voters to defeat the measure.
In six days of polling that concluded Wednesday, Proposition 66 still held a lead of 55 percent to 33 percent, with 12 percent undecided. The figures represented a sharp decline from the 65 percent yes, 18 percent no and 17 percent undecided that were tallied in a Field Poll released on Oct. 12.
More ominous for the initiative's backers, however, were the numbers that came in during the last three days of polling. During the first three days of the six-day survey, Proposition 66 was still running strongly, 58-34 in favor. Then the bottom fell out of its support, with the opposition actually moving ahead, 47 percent to 46 percent.
DiCamillo said such a turnabout is unprecedented in his 26 years in the business.
"This was was just rolling along, ahead by 25 points or so," he said. "And beginning this week, it just collapsed."
The movement "is actually more important than the numbers themselves," DiCamillo said. "As more people have learned about Proposition 66 and come to judgment about it, you can see the direction of change is toward no, and usually, that continues to Election Day."
No on 66 campaign manager Richard Temple said the change came as no surprise to him.
"This is exactly what we expected to happen," Temple said. "Once voters hear about this initiative, they don't like it."
Temple said Henry T. Nicholas III, the Orange County businessman who earlier this week contributed $1.5 million to Schwarzenegger for the No on 66 advertising campaign, kicked in an additional $400,000 on Friday.
Yes on 66 spokesman Sandy Harrison said the measure's supporters also expected the margin to tighten.
"We knew there would be some ads that are very scary, albeit not true, from the other side and that they would have some effect," Harrison said, referring to the Schwarzenegger spots that claim Proposition 66 will release upwards of 26,000 prisoners. Proponents say 4,100 or so inmates will be eligible for resentencing and not necessarily released if the measure passes.
Despite the trend picked up by the Field survey, Harrison said, "we're reasonably confident we'll prevail." His side is airing spots this week featuring Joe Klaas, the grandfather of Polly Klaas, whose 1993 slaying helped spark the "three-strikes" law that legislators and voters passed in 1994.
Under the "three-strikes" law, offenders with previous criminal histories that include two serious or violent felony convictions can be sentenced to 25 years to life in prison for any third felony conviction. Proposition 66 would require the third felony also to be either serious or violent. It also would be applied retroactively to offenders who have already been sentenced.
Proposition 66 isn't the only ballot measure that found its support falling off.
Friday's Field Poll also discovered a dip in backing for Proposition 62, which would dramatically change the way California elects partisan officeholders. Under the measure, voters could choose any candidate regardless of party affiliation in primary elections, but only the top two vote-getters would advance to the general election.
Field's latest survey showed support from 40 percent of likely voters, down from 44 percent earlier in the month. Opposition, meanwhile, climbed from 31 percent to 38 percent. More than a fifth of voters remain undecided.
Both campaigns said the race has tightened because mass mailings from state Democratic and Republican parties, both of which oppose the measure, have begun to hit households.
A rival measure placed on the ballot by the Legislature to preserve the current election system, meanwhile, was gaining favor with voters, the poll found. Proposition 60 had support from 42 percent of likely voters, with 28 percent opposed and 30 percent undecided.
If both measures pass, whichever gets the most votes will prevail.
By Andy Furillo -- Bee Staff Writer
Published 2:15 am PDT Saturday, October 30, 2004
Boosted by a popular governor and backed by a new influx of cash, opponents of an effort to amend the state's "three-strikes" law are heading into the final weekend before the election with a huge shot of momentum.
A Field Poll of likely voters released Friday showed support for Proposition 66 has slipped by 25 points in the past 17 days - with the most-recently contacted respondents evenly split on the measure.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, said he has never seen such an about-face on an initiative during the course of a single polling period. It started, he said, when Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger stumped the state against Proposition 66 last weekend.
"The word has gotten out to the voting public that the governor is opposed to this thing, and he seems to be making some headway in persuading people to the 'no' side, to give it a second look," DiCamillo said.
DiCamillo said the movement began even before the No on 66 forces launched their television advertising campaign - featuring Schwarzenegger - on Wednesday. The opponents, with a bankroll now approaching $3 million, are blanketing every media market in the state with 15-second spots in which the Republican governor implores voters to defeat the measure.
In six days of polling that concluded Wednesday, Proposition 66 still held a lead of 55 percent to 33 percent, with 12 percent undecided. The figures represented a sharp decline from the 65 percent yes, 18 percent no and 17 percent undecided that were tallied in a Field Poll released on Oct. 12.
More ominous for the initiative's backers, however, were the numbers that came in during the last three days of polling. During the first three days of the six-day survey, Proposition 66 was still running strongly, 58-34 in favor. Then the bottom fell out of its support, with the opposition actually moving ahead, 47 percent to 46 percent.
DiCamillo said such a turnabout is unprecedented in his 26 years in the business.
"This was was just rolling along, ahead by 25 points or so," he said. "And beginning this week, it just collapsed."
The movement "is actually more important than the numbers themselves," DiCamillo said. "As more people have learned about Proposition 66 and come to judgment about it, you can see the direction of change is toward no, and usually, that continues to Election Day."
No on 66 campaign manager Richard Temple said the change came as no surprise to him.
"This is exactly what we expected to happen," Temple said. "Once voters hear about this initiative, they don't like it."
Temple said Henry T. Nicholas III, the Orange County businessman who earlier this week contributed $1.5 million to Schwarzenegger for the No on 66 advertising campaign, kicked in an additional $400,000 on Friday.
Yes on 66 spokesman Sandy Harrison said the measure's supporters also expected the margin to tighten.
"We knew there would be some ads that are very scary, albeit not true, from the other side and that they would have some effect," Harrison said, referring to the Schwarzenegger spots that claim Proposition 66 will release upwards of 26,000 prisoners. Proponents say 4,100 or so inmates will be eligible for resentencing and not necessarily released if the measure passes.
Despite the trend picked up by the Field survey, Harrison said, "we're reasonably confident we'll prevail." His side is airing spots this week featuring Joe Klaas, the grandfather of Polly Klaas, whose 1993 slaying helped spark the "three-strikes" law that legislators and voters passed in 1994.
Under the "three-strikes" law, offenders with previous criminal histories that include two serious or violent felony convictions can be sentenced to 25 years to life in prison for any third felony conviction. Proposition 66 would require the third felony also to be either serious or violent. It also would be applied retroactively to offenders who have already been sentenced.
Proposition 66 isn't the only ballot measure that found its support falling off.
Friday's Field Poll also discovered a dip in backing for Proposition 62, which would dramatically change the way California elects partisan officeholders. Under the measure, voters could choose any candidate regardless of party affiliation in primary elections, but only the top two vote-getters would advance to the general election.
Field's latest survey showed support from 40 percent of likely voters, down from 44 percent earlier in the month. Opposition, meanwhile, climbed from 31 percent to 38 percent. More than a fifth of voters remain undecided.
Both campaigns said the race has tightened because mass mailings from state Democratic and Republican parties, both of which oppose the measure, have begun to hit households.
A rival measure placed on the ballot by the Legislature to preserve the current election system, meanwhile, was gaining favor with voters, the poll found. Proposition 60 had support from 42 percent of likely voters, with 28 percent opposed and 30 percent undecided.
If both measures pass, whichever gets the most votes will prevail.